The Ripple Effect: the UBOS errors in the census and their wider implications

By Sebaggala Richard

The integrity of statistical data is critical to the design of effective public policy and the management of socio-economic development. As a student of economics and statistics, I am increasingly aware of the profound impact that mismanagement of data can have on governance and societal well-being. The recent controversy with the Uganda National Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) and its handling of the 2024 National Population and Housing Census data is a good example of this. UBOS was forced to recall the census report following widespread public outcry over inconsistencies in the population figures. The Executive Director of UBOS admitted that the demographic data had been misattributed, with population figures of different ethnic groups being incorrectly assigned to others. This situation raises significant concerns about the reliability of data collection, and processes, the accountability of statistical institutions, and the wider implications for policy making and social justice.

 

At the centre of the problem is the principle of accuracy. Statistical data is not just a collection of numbers; it represents realities that influence decisions that affect the lives of millions of people. When figures that are supposed to represent the Langi people are wrongly attributed to the Acholi, or when Acholi data is wrongly attributed to the Bakiga, the consequences go beyond academic concerns. Such errors can lead to misguided policies, misallocation of resources, and an inability to address the specific needs of different communities. These misrepresentations can exacerbate social tensions and inequalities and further undermine public trust in government institutions and the data they produce.

Population and housing censuses play a critical role in the distribution of government funds, voter turnout, and the identification of social needs. When demographic data is inaccurate, it can lead to inequalities in the distribution of resources, especially for marginalized communities. The impact of such inaccuracies is particularly great in developing countries like Uganda, where resources are limited and the need for targeted interventions is urgent.

In Uganda, the public demand for accountability following the misreporting of census figures reflects a growing awareness of the importance of accurate data. People are increasingly realising that decisions based on statistical reports have a direct impact on their lives. The calls for the resignation of those responsible at UBOS show that society expects more transparency and accountability in data management. This incident also raises important questions about the systems in place to ensure the accuracy of the data, as well as the training and resources available to those responsible for collecting and analyzing the data.

In light of this situation and public outrage, I sought to understand whether similar problems have occurred elsewhere — not to excuse UBOS, but to find out whether such incidents are more common than we think and how other societies have dealt with them.  A quick review of the literature revealed that while the UBOS error raises legitimate concerns, it is not unique to Uganda. Data management errors have occurred in other countries, even with advanced data systems, sophisticated infrastructure, and well-trained and experienced staff. This shows the need for stricter data management rather than questioning the mandate of statistical organizations.

For example, despite its sophisticated systems, the U.S. Census Bureau had problems with accuracy during the 2020 census. The bureau acknowledged errors in the count, particularly affecting racial and ethnic groups and impacting congressional representation and federal funding. These errors have led to reforms to avoid similar errors in the future. Although the context is different, the US case shows that even established statistical agencies with sophisticated systems can face data problems. The U.S. Census Bureau introduced a sophisticated privacy algorithm to protect individual privacy, but this led to discrepancies in the population counts of minority groups and rural areas. This demonstrates the importance of striking a balance between privacy and data accuracy (Mueller & Santos-Lozada, 2022). Even if the data error in UBOS is due to administrative oversight rather than complex algorithms, it shows the importance of sound data processing and quality control. UBOS, like other statistical organisations, must take this opportunity to review its processes and adopt global best practises to avoid future errors.

 

In the UK, an error in the National Health Service (NHS) patient record system in 2017 resulted in the misidentification of over 700,000 women for breast cancer screening. Thousands of women missed their screenings, with tragic consequences including undiagnosed cases of cancer. This error, caused by an administrative oversight, shook public confidence in the NHS, despite corrective action being taken. In addition, clinical coding errors in NHS hospitals between 2007 and 2010 led to incorrect payments for £1bn worth of treatment (O'Dowd, 2010).  Although these errors were primarily financial in nature, they demonstrate that administrative errors can have serious consequences—both for public confidence and the people involved. This emphasizes the importance of consistent monitoring and control in big data systems - a lesson that UBOS can learn from.

 

The Greek statistics scandal of 2010 is an excellent example of the far-reaching consequences associated with inaccurate data. The revelation that Greece had significantly underreported public debt and budget deficit figures to the European Union triggered a financial crisis and necessitated an international bailout. This incident is an important example for understanding the far-reaching consequences of statistical errors and shows how seemingly minor discrepancies can escalate into major economic disasters. Such events not only undermine public confidence but also have far-reaching consequences.

 

In response to the scandal, concerted efforts have been made across Europe to reassess statistical methodologies and reporting standards, while policy makers and economists have endeavored to mitigate the risk of similar incidents in the future. Although the error uncovered by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) may not have the same magnitude of impact, it demonstrates the extent to which data inaccuracies can jeopardize a country's credibility.

This incident emphasizes the need for a sound statistical framework and the ethical obligation of government institutions to ensure the accuracy of the data they disseminate. Promoting transparency, accountability, and ethical data practices is essential for statistical organizations. The establishment of independent oversight bodies tasked with reviewing and validating statistical practices is crucial. In addition, establishing mechanisms for public engagement and feedback prior to the publication of statistical results is crucial to prevent such unfavourable events from recurring.

In 2016, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suffered a technical failure when its national census website crashed due to a cyber-attack. The incident, known as ‘CensusFail', caused delays and frustration. Although this was not a case of data transposition, it highlights how technical errors can affect data integrity and public perception. UBOS needs to communicate openly with the public to maintain trust and improve data accuracy, possibly through the use of new technologies.

These global examples are not meant to excuse UBOS but to show that even the most advanced statistical systems face challenges. Mistakes happen everywhere, regardless of the sophistication or experience of the institution. What matters most is the response— - admitting the error, correcting it, and improving processes to prevent it from happening again.

The Uganda Bureau of Statistics has over the years earned a good reputation for producing reliable statistical data. While this recent error should not be overlooked, it should serve as a catalyst for reviewing data verification processes and strengthening internal controls. Public trust is based on transparency. Therefore, addressing the problem openly and taking corrective action is essential to maintaining confidence in Uganda’s statistical systems.

In conclusion, I strongly believe that the technical staff and management of UBOS are taking proactive steps to resolve the problem. By acknowledging the error, working diligently to determine the cause, and committing to avoid similar errors in the future, UBOS can restore its integrity. By learning from this incident and implementing stronger internal controls, UBOS can strengthen its credibility and continue to play an important role in supporting informed decision-making, policy formulation and socio-economic development in Uganda.

 Why We Can’t Have Our Cake and Eat It: Economic Growth and Inequality

By Sebaggala Richard

 

In my previous article, "Growth without Equity: Why Uganda Must Tackle Inequality for Sustainable Happiness," I received a thoughtful comment suggesting that I had "left some meat on the bones." This was a telling metaphor, implying that while I attempted to highlight the issue of inequality, there is more to uncover—more depth, more questions, and more solutions to explore.

As I reflected on this feedback, I realized that I needed to emphasize the need to tackle the issue of inequality more deeply. Indeed, the heart of the matter lies in a complex web of economic forces, social dynamics, and policy choices. Without a comprehensive approach to these interlocking elements, even the best-intentioned growth policies cannot lead to sustainable and inclusive prosperity.

In this follow-up article, I will take a closer look at the tension between economic growth and inequality and try to answer an even more pressing question: Can we really have robust economic growth while ensuring fairness and equity for all? As we will see, this balance remains elusive, and if we do not address it, the promise of growth will continue to leave many behind.

The Illusion of Wealth: Growth Without Fairness

It is tempting to believe that economic growth automatically leads to prosperity for all. But as recent global developments have shown, growth alone is no guarantee of equitable outcomes. In fact, the traditional narrative of the rising tide lifting all boats is increasingly being debunked. Empirical evidence from both advanced and developing economies shows that growth without equitable distribution widens the gap between rich and poor and economically disenfranchises large sections of society. This phenomenon can be observed in Uganda, where despite years of growth, the Gini coefficient still stands at a worrying 0.42, indicating significant income inequality. While some sectors of the economy are thriving, the benefits of this growth are not reaching the majority. This reality emphasizes a structural imbalance in economic systems— - an imbalance where growth is occurring but only a small section of society is reaping the rewards.

The widening gap between the affluent and the economically disadvantaged also poses an ethical and practical challenge to sustainable development. The situation reflects a larger global problem: the pursuit of growth without tackling inequality only widens the gap between the rich and the poor.

Why Wealth Doesn’t Necessarily Equal Happiness

In my last article, I touched on the idea that higher income does not always equate to greater happiness. This concept, known as the Easterlin paradox, illustrates that above a certain level of income, additional wealth hardly increases well-being. Instead, what really brings satisfaction is the ability to fulfil basic needs, maintain social relationships and live in a just society.

Imagine a scenario where a handful of people own multiple businesses or juggle multiple jobs and make vast amounts of money, while the majority of their family, neighbours and community members remain financially grounded. Yes, these few may have more money, but what happiness can this wealth bring if their immediate social environment is characterized by poverty and injustice? In this scenario, collective well-being is further impaired by relative deprivation — the psychological burden of knowing that others are much better off—. On the other hand, a society in which incomes are more evenly distributed tends to promote greater collective well-being as people share in the benefits of growth. While a certain level of inequality can incentivise investment and growth, excessive inequality can hinder economic development (Berg & Ostry, 2013),the overall effect of inequality on growth is destructive.

The trade-off: economic growth vs. equity

The well-known saying "You can’t have your cake and eat it too" perfectly describes the trade-off between unregulated economic growth and the pursuit of fairness. Rapid economic growth is possible, but often comes at the cost of increasing inequality. For example, measures to promote business growth — such as tax cuts for companies or reduced labour protections — may increase profits but disproportionately benefit the wealthy. Meanwhile, ordinary workers have to live with stagnating wages and a rising cost of living.

This trade-off is clearly visible in Uganda’s urban centres, where the cost of housing, education and essential goods has outstripped wage growth. The impact of this unequal growth is not only economic — it also undermines social cohesion and increases discontent among marginalized communities. The pressure on two-income households to keep up with these rising costs creates a cycle of stress and dissatisfaction. Uganda’s economy may be growing, but this growth is not delivering the equitable benefits that most citizens need to improve their quality of life. This trade-off between growth and equity is symptomatic of a broader challenge facing many nations in a globalized economy: Prioritising profit maximization without considering the social consequences can undermine long-term stability.

The social cost of inequality

The long-term costs of inequality are significant and far-reaching. Inequality fuels social unrest, creates discontent, and divides communities. It undermines social cohesion and creates deep divides between the rich and the poor. In the current political climate, this discontent has fuelled populist movements and opposition to globalization, complicating efforts to tackle inequality at a global level. As we have seen in many parts of the world, extreme income inequality often leads to political instability and protests as citizens demand a fairer distribution of resources.

Furthermore, inequality inhibits economic growth in the long term. This is not only an ethical issue, but also an economic one. Research has repeatedly shown that economies with high levels of inequality are less able to achieve long-term growth because a larger proportion of the population lacks the resources to invest in their education, healthcare or entrepreneurial activities. A recent study by Adeleye et al. (2020) provides further evidence that the interaction between income inequality and economic growth significantly weakens the poverty-reducing effects of growth. Their comparative analysis of 58 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America found that while economic growth has poverty-reducing tendencies, income inequality exacerbates poverty and undermines the inclusiveness of this growth. In Uganda, if we continue to allow inequality to worsen, as these results show, the benefits of future economic growth will remain out of reach for the majority, trapping the country in a cycle of poverty and limited development.

 

Inclusive growth: the way forward

So how can Uganda pursue economic growth while ensuring that it benefits all and not just the wealthy few? The answer lies in the pursuit of inclusive growth. Inclusive growth refers to economic expansion that provides opportunities to all segments of society, especially the most disadvantaged. This approach emphasises equality and social justice and ensures that economic gains are distributed more evenly across the population. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) also emphasise this need for inclusion. Goal 10 explicitly calls for the reduction of inequality within and between countries.

Norway offers an impressive example of how growth can be managed with equity. Despite the discovery of vast oil reserves, the country has taken measures to ensure an equitable distribution of wealth. Through progressive taxation, strong social safety nets, and public investment in health, education, and infrastructure, while controlling population growth, Norway has successfully used its economic growth to improve the well-being of all its citizens. Uganda, with its recent oil discoveries, could follow a similar path by adopting policies that prevent over-concentration of wealth and ensure that all citizens share in the benefits of growth.

To achieve this, Uganda needs to prioritize policy reforms aimed at reducing inequality while promoting growth. Closing tax loopholes and preventing tax evasion by large corporations must be high on the agenda if Uganda is to maximize its revenue and invest in social programs. Progressive taxation can ensure that the wealthiest individuals and companies make a fair contribution to the economy. Tax revenues can be reinvested in social programmes, education and healthcare, helping to level the playing field for lower-income households.

 

Secondly, investment in education and training is essential to equip Ugandans with the skills they need to participate in the economy. According to the 2024 census report, Uganda's population currently stands at 45.9 million people, the majority of whom are young and dependent. The country’s dependency ratio is 89%, with a significant proportion of young people under the age of 18, highlighting the urgent need for targeted investment in education. By promoting vocational training and improving access to quality education, Uganda can reduce unemployment and underemployment and enable more people to benefit from economic opportunities. This is particularly important as the unemployment rate in the 18-30 age group is over 50% and a large proportion of this population is not in education.

Third, supporting small businesses and co-operatives can promote economic growth at the grassroots level. The census report indicates that a significant portion of Uganda’s population lives in rural areas and that small businesses serve as important economic engines for these communities. By providing access to credit and creating a favorable business environment, Uganda can empower local entrepreneurs and help them create jobs and drive sustainable development in their communities. The importance of promoting financial inclusion should not be underestimated as 45% of Ugandans still lack access to financial services. Expanding lending and supporting co-operatives, microfinance institutions and informal intermediaries such as savings groups will be critical to reducing poverty and inequality.

In conclusion, while economic growth is critical to Uganda’s development, it must not come at the expense of fairness and equity. We cannot have our cake and eat it too—pursuing unchecked growth while ignoring the growing inequality in our society. Instead, we must strive for an economic system that promotes both prosperity and fairness and ensures that the benefits of growth are shared by all. True prosperity must not only be measured by GDP but also by social inclusion and equitable distribution of resources.

If Uganda pursues a policy of inclusive growth and tackles the root causes of inequality, it can embark on a path to sustainable development. In this way, we can create a society in which economic progress leads not only to greater prosperity, but also to greater happiness and social harmony. Without this balance, Uganda runs the risk of entrenching the very inequalities that undermine its potential. The future of Uganda’s growth depends on our ability to balance ambition with equity and ensure that everyone can share in the country’s success.

 

 Growth without equity: Why Uganda must tackle  inequality for sustainable happiness 

By Sebaggala Richard 

 

Introduction

    Uganda, like many developing countries, faces an urgent challenge: how to achieve sustainable economic growth while ensuring that the benefits are shared equitably. Despite significant economic progress in recent decades, a substantial proportion of the population continues to struggle with poverty, low wages, and limited access to essential services. This inequality highlights a fundamental flaw in the pursuit of growth without equity.

    The Easterlin Paradox, formulated in 1974 by Richard Easterlin, then a professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania, states that rising income does not necessarily lead to greater happiness. This concept provides a valuable perspective from which to examine Uganda's development path. While economic growth is important for improving living standards, it is not enough on its own. If the benefits of growth are concentrated in the hands of a few while the majority of the population remains marginalised, it is unlikely that the nation will achieve lasting social and economic progress.

The pursuit of prosperity and happiness

    Uganda, like many other countries, is at a crossroads where economic aspirations, poverty, and the relentless pursuit of prosperity collide. A significant proportion of the population, struggling with poor pay and unfulfilled aspirations, is caught in a cycle of trying to earn more money in the belief that this will solve their problems. However, a growing body of research suggests that this pursuit of wealth may be taking us further away from happiness, rather than closer to it.

    Recently, at the Young Researchers Night Agder 2024 in Norway, a neuroscientist pointed out a worrying trend in modern society: The pursuit of higher incomes, especially by dual-income households, has not brought the expected benefits. Instead, it has contributed significantly to the sharp rise in property prices. Before the emancipation of women, a single-earner household could often afford a house. Today, it is almost impossible for couples to buy a house unless both partners are working, driving up property prices. This emphasises a crucial point: striving for more income does not necessarily solve our problems. Instead, it can drive up the cost of living, making us even more dissatisfied.

    This argument is particularly relevant to Uganda, where many strive for higher wages but realise that a higher income does not necessarily lead to a better quality of life. A practical example illustrates the power of reducing inequality: a friend who recently received a substantial pay rise that doubled his salary from 4 million to 8 million Ugandan shillings. While this increase may seem like a step towards financial comfort, the reality was more stressful than gratifying. Due to the huge income inequality, he is the only one in his extended family, in his village and even in his wife's family who is doing well financially. As a result, the burden of supporting a large number of relatives, including seven siblings with low-paid jobs, falls solely on him. Despite the pay rise, he barely feels the benefits as he struggles to fulfil these expectations.

     Now imagine if his siblings each earned between 700,000 and 1 million shillings instead of relying on his income. Improving their financial situation together would reduce his stress and improve their overall well-being. This example illustrates the broader benefits of income equality: when more people earn relatively well, the pressure on a few people to support many is reduced, leading to shared prosperity.  Translating this to an economy, a more equal distribution of wealth would lead to greater happiness and less economic strain overall, rather than a system in which a few people grow while many remain poor. 

The role of institutions

    Governments, religious institutions, and families play a crucial role in taming the pursuit of wealth and promoting well-being. In countries such as Norway, the government has taken specific measures to prevent excessive accumulation of wealth. For example, property laws make it difficult to speculate on property. If you build a house and want to sell it without having lived in it for at least a year, you have to pay a 25% tax. This policy discourages speculative investments that drive up property prices and ensure that more people can afford a home. Norway also ensured that public goods remain accessible to all. This policy is designed to prevent the rich from hoarding resources that should benefit the entire population.

    Uganda, on the other hand, is struggling with inequality. Public resources are often privatized or restricted for the benefit of a few. The government could adopt similar strategies to ensure equitable access to resources and protect the common good. For example, the introduction of a progressive tax on luxury goods and speculative property investments could limit the accumulation of wealth through unproductive means and redirect resources towards improving public infrastructure and services.

    In addition, recent research shows how income inequality undermines the effectiveness of economic growth in reducing poverty. A study by Adeleye et al. (2020) found that while economic growth has poverty-reducing properties, its positive impact is greatly diminished when inequality is high. This suggests that without addressing income inequality, Uganda could continue to experience economic growth without substantial poverty reduction.

    Religious institutions can play a central role in promoting moral values and addressing societal ills. In Uganda, religious institutions could do more to promote justice, moderation, and contentment. Biblical and Quran teachings warn against the dangers of greed and emphasize the value of community and generosity. Religious leaders, including bishops, clergy, and pastors; and Islamic religious leaders at various levels, should model these principles by avoiding the pursuit of material wealth. This will strengthen their moral authority to spread these messages and help Ugandans resist the temptation of materialism by reminding followers that true happiness does not come from wealth but from meaningful relationships and social cohesion.

    Families are also important in curbing the pursuit of wealth. In Uganda, the traditional values of sharing and communal living are often passed down through generations. However, these values are in danger of being undermined by the growing influence of consumer behaviour. Families need to teach their children the importance of balance. They need to teach them that while financial security is important, it must not come at the expense of their own well-being or moral integrity.

Conclusion

Economists argue that a nation cannot survive morally or economically if wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few while a significant proportion of the population remains impoverished. This is particularly true in Uganda, where a Gini coefficient of 0.42 indicates a high level of economic inequality (Naku, 2020). The pursuit of higher incomes, salary increases, and dual-income households does not always lead to an improvement in well-being. Instead, it often leads to a vicious cycle where rising salaries drive up the cost of living. This pattern can already be seen in Uganda’s urban centers, where the cost of goods, education, and housing has risen faster than wages. The result is that people are working harder but feeling more stressed and dissatisfied.

    To overcome these challenges, Uganda needs to prioritize policies that narrow the gap between rich and poor. Programmes that support financial inclusion should be expanded to ensure that even the most marginalized members of society have access to economic opportunities. Introducing higher taxes on luxury goods, speculative investments and top earners can help narrow the income gap and generate revenue for social programmes, healthcare, and education.

    If Uganda follows Norway's example, it could introduce inclusive policies aimed at reducing income inequality and promoting equity for all citizens. Similar to Norway, Uganda has also discovered oil, and just as Norway has used its oil revenues to improve the welfare of its people, Uganda has a similar opportunity. Despite the differences in context, such as population size, the discovery of oil presents an opportunity for Uganda to effectively manage its resources (Polus & Tycholiz, 2017). However, this requires addressing challenges such as patronage and a personalised bureaucracy (Golooba-Mutebi & Hickey, 2009). Reducing economic inequality in Uganda requires political will, committed leadership, and policy reforms that protect the country’s poorest households (Naku, 2020; Lustig et al., 2016).

    Uganda's economic crossroads offers an opportunity to rethink our relationship with money and wealth. The lessons from Norway, the role of institutions, and the warning from neuroscientists all point to the same conclusion: More money does not necessarily mean more happiness. In fact, the unchecked pursuit of wealth often leads to more inequality, inflated cost of living, and greater unhappiness.

    As a nation, Uganda must take deliberate steps to ensure that wealth is distributed fairly and that economic growth serves the well-being of all citizens. By curbing greed, promoting financial literacy, and ensuring access to public resources, Uganda can chart a path to sustainable prosperity— - a path where happiness is not measured by the size of the bank account, but by the strength of our communities and the quality of our lives.

 Dead horses and urban chaos: what Kampala’s failures tell us about Uganda

 

By Sebaggala Richard

 

Recently, I’ve been following the discourse surrounding the sacking of top KCCA officials. While the discussions have been robust, a common theme emerged: most commentators, regardless of political affiliation, view KCCA’s issues as isolated urban problems, detached from the broader state of governance in Uganda. This perspective is both misleading and dangerous.  While KCCA certainly faces unique challenges as an urban authority, its failures are not isolated incidents. They reflect systemic issues deeply rooted in Uganda's governance landscape. With the exception of Hon. Semujju Nganda, who has gone to great lengths to link Kampala’s governance problems to central government failures, the majority of commentators focus on KCCA’s internal problems, overlooking the bigger picture. This limited view is both misleading and dangerous, as KCCA's failures are not isolated urban problems, but rather reflect the broader governance challenges facing the nation.

Kampala is not just any city but the beating heart of Uganda’s economy, administration, and culture. The capital reflects the state of the nation. When its leadership is dysfunctional, its infrastructure crumbling and its services inefficient, it is not only the people of Kampala who suffer. Every Ugandan feels the effects, whether directly or indirectly. We all benefit from a well-functioning capital city, and if we want to improve conditions in Kampala, we must first recognize that the city's problems are symptomatic of broader issues of national governance.

 

The challenges faced by KCCA are a direct reflection of how the central government operates. A government that struggles with corruption, political infighting, and poor resource management cannot be expected to produce a well-managed and efficient city. When governance at the national level is compromised, the city administration inevitably follows suit. This is evident in KCCA’s recurring problems in budget allocation, project management, and service delivery. These are not just local problems but are linked to mismanagement at the national level, political interference, and the general inefficiency of government institutions.

 

If we look more closely, we see the same pattern playing out in many other areas beyond city government. Whether in education, healthcare, or public infrastructure, the effects of poor governance at the central level spill over to the local level, leading to inefficiency, underperformance, and frustration. KCCA’s struggles cannot therefore be viewed in isolation; they are symptomatic of a governance crisis that pervades the entire country. To achieve meaningful improvements in Kampala, and by extension other urban areas in Uganda, we must first address the failures at the national level.

 

This brings us to an important lesson from the "dead horse theory"," which humorously criticizes the tendency of organizations — and in this case governments — to persist with ineffective strategies rather than admit failure and change course. It serves as a cautionary tale of the futility of persisting with ineffective strategies or projects, similar to the adage of "beating a dead horse". For years, the KCCA has been hampered by outdated city government approaches, political interference, and poor resource allocation, all of which are a reflection of the overall failures of the national administration. The “dead horse theory" states that when an approach no longer works, we must have the courage to pivot, admit failure, and look for new strategies instead of continuing to invest in it. Unfortunately, both KCCA and the national government have shown a reluctance to do this.

Instead of addressing the core problems within KCCA, the response to inefficiency and corruption often consists of superficial changes— - such as firing officials or reorganizing departments — without tackling the root causes. This is not only a problem of leadership at the city level but also reflects the approach of central government, where changes are often cosmetic rather than substantive. Effective governance requires recognizing when strategies are failing and being brave enough to make significant changes, even if this is politically uncomfortable.

 

From an economic perspective, the importance of well-governed capitals cannot be overstated. Economists have long pointed out that capital cities play a unique role in driving national economic growth. They tend to be hubs for trade, investment, innovation and culture. A well-functioning capital city can enhance the country’s international reputation, attract foreign investment and promote economic development. Conversely, a poorly managed capital city becomes a stumbling block to national growth. Poor infrastructure, inefficient public services and political instability in Kampala not only affect the city’s inhabitants, but also hinder Uganda’s economic potential as a whole.

 

Furthermore, capital cities are often the center of government institutions and public administration. When these institutions function poorly, it affects the entire country. In the case of Kampala, the inefficiency and dysfunction of the KCCA is not only an inconvenience to the city's inhabitants but reflects deeper structural problems that affect the entire national administrative framework. Therefore, improving the administration of the KCCA cannot be done in isolation, but requires a national-level reform that begins with addressing the problems that have long plagued the central government.

 

When thinking about what needs to change, we must not make the mistake of focusing only on the symptoms and ignoring the root causes. The "dead horse theory" teaches us that clinging to failed strategies — whether in city government or national government — only leads to wasted resources and frustration. Instead, we need to have the courage to recognise when something is not working and chart a new course. In his 2020 study, Parry builds on the well-known metaphor of the dead horse. He argues that the smartest thing to do when you are on a dead horse is to dismount. Recognising the futility of a situation and redirecting efforts in more productive ways is crucial to progress. Parry emphasizes that it is crucial to act decisively and dismount when you recognize the signs of a dead horse. In Kampala’s case, this means going beyond superficial fixes and addressing the deeper problems of political interference, corruption, and fiscal mismanagement that have long dogged both the KCCA and the national government.

 

In conclusion, if we are to achieve meaningful improvements in the governance of KCCA and other urban areas in Uganda, we must first address the systemic problems within our national government. The problems facing KCCA are not just local administrative problems; they are symptoms of a much larger governance crisis that affects every part of the country. By addressing the flaws at the national level, we can set the stage for a better-managed and more efficient capital city — one that serves not only the people of Kampala but all Ugandans.

 The Numbers Don't Lie, But They Can Mislead: Uganda's Economic Reality

 By Richard Sebaggala

  

Recently, I read an article by Chief Business Correspondent Ian Verrender, which criticized the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for relying on outdated economic theories about inflation and employment. Verrender highlighted how economic thoughts, such as the Phillips Curve, are often used by governments and policymakers to justify controversial decisions. For example, he noted that many economists believe that to control inflation, 5% of the workforce must be unemployed, thus normalizing unemployment without considering its devastating effects on individuals and their families.

The argument resonated with me, as I reflected on how Ugandan policymakers and economists often employ familiar economic theories and statistics to justify fiscal and monetary decisions that have perpetuated poverty. In Uganda, the misuse of economic statistics has become a powerful tool for justifying government inefficiencies. Borrowing a famous phrase, “Statistics are like mini skirts: they reveal just enough to keep you interested, but what they hide is far more important.” This sentiment aptly captures how numbers are often manipulated to paint a rosy picture while obscuring deeper systemic failures. Below are key statistics and economic theories that require scrutiny in the Ugandan context.

1. Debt-to-GDP Ratio: A False Sense of Security

The debt-to-GDP ratio has become a prominent metric utilized by government officials to rationalize the escalating levels of national debt. According to a report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in February 2024, Uganda's public debt has surged to unprecedented heights, amounting to 96.1 trillion Ugandan shillings (approximately $25.3 billion or 52 percent of GDP) as of June 2023, as detailed in a recent Auditor General's report. This total comprises 44.6 trillion shillings in domestic debt and 52.8 trillion shillings sourced from international creditors. Notably, this figure does not account for an additional 7 trillion shillings in loans currently awaiting parliamentary approval. Consequently, each of Uganda's 45 million citizens bears a debt burden of approximately 2.5 million shillings.

Emerging evidence indicates that Uganda may be at risk of entering a "public debt safety trap," wherein a seemingly favorable debt position—predicated on conventional debt sustainability metrics—misleadingly suggests that the country possesses greater fiscal capacity for borrowing, particularly when the current debt levels remain beneath established national or international thresholds. By juxtaposing Uganda's debt with its overall economic output, officials contend that borrowing remains within manageable limits. However, this interpretation overlooks essential factors, including the productivity of the borrowed funds, the escalating burden of debt servicing, and the long-term viability of such borrowing practices.

The debt-to-GDP ratio fails to accurately reflect the economic realities faced by the nation, where borrowed capital is frequently allocated to unproductive initiatives, white elephant projects, or is lost to corruption. Instead of critically assessing the efficiency of public expenditure, policymakers often rely on this statistic as a justification for imprudent borrowing practices that ultimately encumber future generations.

2. GDP Growth: The Mirage of Economic Success

The Ugandan government frequently employs impressive GDP growth figures and sectoral successes to construct a narrative of a thriving economy. While these statistics may suggest the country is on the right track, deeper issues such as poverty, inequality, and the need for inclusive growth remain inadequately addressed.  In the 2023 State of the Nation Address, the President highlighted Uganda's economic expansion from $1.5 billion in 1986 to approximately $49.4 billion, projecting continued growth of 6.5-7.0% annually driven by increased manufacturing and regional trade. However, these narratives often obscure the unequal distribution of this growth. Similarly, growth projections and claims of reaching middle-income status are used to paint a rosy economic picture, ignoring the reality that many Ugandans remain in poverty.

The government's focus on infrastructure investments, such as roads and industrial parks, often highlights the visible progress of large-scale projects while sidelining discussions on their actual impact on job creation and poverty reduction. This strategic presentation of economic statistics diverts attention from the critical need for inclusive and equitable economic policies, allowing inefficiencies and inequalities to persist unchallenged.

 

3. Inflation Targeting: Stability at the Cost of Growth

Research indicates that while inflation targeting aims to stabilize prices, it often comes with significant drawbacks, particularly in developing economies. The framework prioritizes low inflation, frequently achieved through high interest rates, which can suppress investment, restrict credit availability, and hinder economic recovery (Atesoglu & Smithin, 2006; Ndikumana, 2016). In Uganda, the Bank of Uganda’s inflation targeting policy exemplifies this trade-off, as the focus on maintaining low inflation leads to elevated interest rates that disproportionately affect the economy’s most vital sectors. High borrowing costs stifle the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, which are crucial to Uganda’s economic landscape, limiting their capacity to expand, invest, and create jobs. This approach, often justified under the banner of economic stability, overlooks the broader impact on growth and employment, painting a misleading picture of economic health. While the central bank’s policy is lauded for keeping inflation in check, it simultaneously constrains the very drivers of economic development, underscoring the disconnect between inflation targeting and the inclusive growth that Uganda desperately needs.

 

4. Poverty Headcount Ratios: Surface-Level Improvements

Government reports often tout reductions in poverty headcount ratios as evidence of progress. For example, statements like "Uganda has made significant progress in reducing poverty over the past decades, from 56.4 percent in 1992/93 to 19.7 percent in 2012/13 and 20.3 percent in 2019/20" have become commonplace in government policy documents. However, these statistics often fail to capture the depth and severity of poverty, oversimplifying the complex realities faced by many Ugandans.

While it may be true that many Ugandans have risen slightly above the poverty line, they remain vulnerable to economic shocks, such as rising food prices or medical emergencies, which can easily push them back into extreme poverty. The reliance on headcount ratios oversimplifies the complex realities of poverty and masks the inadequate delivery of essential services like healthcare and education. A more comprehensive approach to measuring poverty is needed to accurately assess the country's progress and identify areas where targeted interventions are required.

 

5. Exchange Rate Stability: A Double-Edged Sword

Maintaining a stable exchange rate is often portrayed as a sign of economic prudence. A case in point is the Bank of Uganda’s decision in April 2024 to raise the Central Bank Rate (CBR) to 10%, highlighting the complexities of managing exchange rate stability in a volatile economic environment. While the intention behind a higher CBR is to attract foreign investment and bolster the shilling, this approach can have unintended consequences for domestic economic competitiveness and growth. By propping up the shilling, the Bank of Uganda risks harming exporters and local producers, as Ugandan goods become less competitive on the international market. Additionally, higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and suppress investment in productive sectors, ultimately stifling economic growth and undermining the broader goals of economic stability.

6. Tax Revenue to GDP Ratio: The Overlooked Burden

Uganda's push to increase its tax-to-GDP ratio is frequently touted as a crucial step towards economic development. The Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) Commissioner General  recently highlighted the nation's growth in this ratio to 14% in the last financial year, expressing ambitions to reach 18%—a threshold commonly associated with developed economies. However, Uganda's tax-to-GDP ratio remains lower than the African average of 15.6%, and significantly below many developed nations, which the government uses to justify its push for increased tax collection.

While expanding the tax base is framed as necessary for national progress, the burden often falls disproportionately on lower-income individuals and small businesses. The aggressive tax policies target those least able to bear the costs, while larger firms and politically connected entities frequently benefit from tax exemptions and loopholes, creating a regressive system that exacerbates economic inequality. Between 2010 and 2021, Uganda's tax-to-GDP ratio increased by 3.9 percentage points, yet this growth has primarily been driven by taxing sectors that are already financially constrained rather than tapping into more equitable revenue streams.

 

The prioritization of achieving higher tax revenues often overlooks the impact on economic growth and social welfare. By pushing for higher tax collections in a manner that disproportionately affects the most vulnerable, the government risks stifling small businesses and discouraging economic activity in the informal sector, which employs a large portion of the population. This approach, while intended to bolster state revenues, can inadvertently deepen economic disparities, illustrating how the tax-to-GDP push, though well-intentioned, often masks the underlying burden it places on those least able to afford it.

Conclusion

Uganda's economic statistics and theories, often paraded as evidence of prudent management and progress, are too often used to mask deeper systemic issues. From debt levels to tax-to-GDP ratios, these figures are wielded as tools to justify government inefficiencies and deflect accountability. While Uganda’s GDP growth , borrowing to finance infrastructure projects, low inflation, headcount poverty reduction, and rising tax-to-GDP ratio are celebrated, they fail to capture the full picture of economic challenges faced by ordinary citizens and businesses alike.

 

It's time for economists and policymakers to move beyond surface-level statistics and engage in a more honest appraisal of the country's economic realities. Instead of solely relying on abstract numbers, we must ask critical questions: Are Ugandans truly benefiting from the country’s economic growth? Are families able to afford basic necessities, or are they struggling under the weight of rising living costs? Can they access quality healthcare and education, or are these essential services out of reach for the majority? Are decent, stable jobs available, or do most rely on precarious, informal work that offers little security?

 

Equally important, how are firms coping with the increasing tax burden? Can they meet their tax obligations, or are they forced to cut corners, underreport, or finance taxes through unsustainable means such as high-interest loans? How are businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, surviving under the weight of high taxes, and what impact does this have on their ability to grow, create jobs, and contribute to the economy?

By shifting the focus from statistical achievements to the tangible outcomes affecting people’s lives and the realities faced by businesses, economists and policymakers can better identify and address the underlying causes of poverty, inequality, and economic stagnation. Developing targeted policies that prioritize the real-world needs of Ugandans and firms over the pursuit of impressive statistics is essential. Only then can we begin to tackle the genuine issues that lie behind the often misleading façade of economic success, creating a path toward a more inclusive and equitable economy.

 

 The economics of the fascination with witchcraft: What Samuel’s PhD defense  reveals about our society

By

Richard Sebaggala

 

In a surprising twist, the defense of Samuel's PhD thesis at Makerere University today, September 20, 2024, titled "UROYI: Contesting Witchcraft Regulation in Zimbabwe, 1890-2023"," captivated an unusually large audience. The Zoom link for its defense reached its maximum capacity of 500 participants even before the event began, leaving many others unable to attend and frustrated at having missed out. This unprecedented turnout raises interesting questions: Why did a topic on witchcraft generate more interest than typical academic defenses, including those on religious topics? What does this tell us about our society's fascination with witchcraft?

While Samuel's study dives deep into the historical and political controversies surrounding the regulation of witchcraft in Zimbabwe, the overwhelming interest in his defense sheds light on broader economic and social implications that extend far beyond academic circles.

High demand reflects unspoken interests

The first and most striking observation at this event is the extraordinary public interest in a topic that is often considered taboo or relegated to the margins of academic research. Unlike typical PhD defenses, which struggle to attract attendees outside of immediate academic circles, Samuel's defense on witchcraft was almost immediately filled to capacity. This high level of engagement demonstrates a hidden societal fascination with witchcraft and suggests that it touches on aspects of the human experience that often remain unexplored.

 

Unlike many other topics, witchcraft is not just an academic subject — it is part of the lived reality for many Africans. Despite the predominantly Christian orientation of Uganda and much of Africa, witchcraft remains an undercurrent in cultural and social practices. This phenomenon may not be openly discussed in an official setting, but its influence remains in the way people make decisions, assess risks and interpret misfortunes. The high level of participation suggests that people want to explore these hidden aspects of their culture, even if only in the safety of an academic discussion.

Witchcraft as a Cultural and Economic Phenomenon

The interest in Samuel’s defense highlights the intersection of cultural heritage and economic behavior. Witchcraft and the beliefs associated with it are more than just superstition. They play a role in the functioning of communities and influence everything from agricultural practices to business decisions. For example, fear of curses or spells can affect trade, investment, and interpersonal relationships within a community.

From an economic perspective, understanding witchcraft can provide valuable insights into why certain markets behave the way they do, particularly in the rural and informal sectors. Cultural beliefs in witchcraft often influence economic decisions, causing some people to refuse to sell land, avoid certain businesses or shun business partnerships. These actions are driven by fears and beliefs rather than purely economic considerations.

Recent research shows the complex relationship between belief in witchcraft and economic behavior across Africa. These beliefs can influence business practices, market dynamics, and social relations (Mgumia, 2020; Gershman, 2021). In Tanzania, for example, the concept of "Chuma Ulete" associates business success or failure with witchcraft and thus significantly influences entrepreneurial engagement (Mgumia, 2020). In West Africa, traditional priests also claim to manipulate financial markets through spiritual means, highlighting the perceived power of the supernatural in economic activities (Parish, 2018).

Belief in witchcraft is also associated with weak institutions, a conformist culture and in-group prejudice, which can hinder innovation and entrepreneurship (Gershman, 2022). These factors create an environment in which fear and superstition shape economic behavior more than rational economic principles.

This phenomenon is vividly illustrated in experiments where money placed next to objects related to witchcraft, such as strange charms or scarves, is often left untouched for fear of supernatural consequences. This fear of retribution is consistent with the findings of a study by Myriam Hadnes and Heiner Schumacher, which showed that traditional beliefs in Burkina Faso significantly influence economic behavior. The study found that the fear of immediate punishment for moral transgressions, which is often associated with supernatural forces, influences behavior more strongly than abstract religious principles. In contrast, money left in a Bible or other religious contexts is quickly taken, highlighting the deeply ingrained belief in the immediate and personal power of witchcraft as opposed to the more abstract consequences associated with religious teachings. This marked difference underscores how fear rooted in cultural narratives can significantly influence everyday economic activity.

Samuel’s research explores how different groups — missionaries, colonial administrators and Africans themselves— - contested the regulation of witchcraft over time. This history reflects the broader struggle between modernity and tradition that still defines much of Africa’s socio-economic landscape. For many, this defence is not just about learning history, but also understanding how the beliefs of the past shape the behaviour of the present.

Curiosity, fear or both? Exploring the human fascination with the supernatural

The sheer demand to witness Samuel's defence perhaps also reflects deeper human instincts — a mixture of curiosity, fear and the allure of the unknown. Witchcraft naturally appeals to the primal parts of human psychology: the need to explain the unexplainable, to find control in chaos and to grapple with fear of the supernatural. This could explain why topics like these tend to attract more attention than academic discussions about science, economics, or rationality.

The social narratives around witchcraft are strong. There are many stories of people avoiding theft or harm for fear of supernatural retribution, which stands in stark contrast to everyday events such as church break-ins. Rarely do we hear of break-ins into shrines or the homes of witch doctors, which makes it even clearer how strongly these fears influence behaviour. This behaviour is not just about personal morality, but is often shaped by an intuitive fear of tangible, immediate consequences, as opposed to the abstract judgement associated with religious teachings.

Economic insights from the perception of witchcraft

Samuel’s study of the post-1980 Witchcraft Suppression Act shows how governments have historically sought to regulate beliefs that they perceived as a threat to social order. In economic terms, these regulations can be seen as attempts to control behaviours that could destabilise communities. Accusations of witchcraft, for example, can lead to violence, social marginalisation or economic disruption.

Understanding these dynamics can provide valuable insights to policy makers. If the belief in witchcraft significantly influences a community's behaviour, any regulatory or development measures must take these cultural factors into account. Ignoring them could lead to misguided policies or unintended consequences that perpetuate fear and mistrust.

Religious societies and the taboo of witchcraft

It is particularly striking that such a topic is of great interest in societies that are predominantly Christian. This indicates a cognitive dissonance in which the public rejection of witchcraft coexists with private curiosity or belief. Even though religious teachings denounce witchcraft, it remains woven into the social fabric, especially in  areas and contexts where traditional practices still prevail.

For many, participating in this defence could be a way of reconciling these conflicting beliefs or gaining a deeper understanding of how traditional practices have been regulated, challenged, and adapted over time. It turns out that beneath the surface of religious affiliation lies a complex web of cultural beliefs that continue to influence daily life.

Conclusion: A reflection on cultural beliefs and economic behaviour

The overwhelming interest in Samuel’s PhD defence on the regulation of witchcraft is not just a fascination with the supernatural, but reflects a deeper societal dynamic. It speaks to our enduring curiosity about the unknown, our struggle to reconcile tradition and modernity, and the continuing influence of cultural beliefs on economic behaviour.

For Ugandans and Africans, Samuel’s work serves as a reminder that the past is never truly left behind. Even in a predominantly Christian society, cultural and spiritual beliefs continue to shape attitudes and behaviour. The unprecedented interest in his defence underlines the importance of these beliefs, even within Christian communities.

As Christians, we must respond with understanding, compassion and truth. Rather than seeing this interest as a threat, we can see it as an opportunity to engage in a meaningful way. By communicating a message of hope that transcends fear and superstition, we can lead people to the light of the gospel and the freedom that comes from faith in Christ.